Category: Election 2004: Here We Go Again
Friday, October 29, 2004
This is the official thread for entries for the JWM 2004 Election Day Prediction Contest. Post your comments below. Read the rules and resources post before entering.
Note that I have made one significant change to the rules since announcing the contest: given the increasingly likely scenario of one or more states being tied up in Florida 2000-style knots, I'm now allowing entries that predict that we won't know the winner by November 3 due to incomplete counts in one or more states. However, for such an entry to win, you must submit a complete list of the states you believe will be incomplete as of 12:00 noon, November 3, 2004, and your list must be 100% correct. (I want to avoid having "Yeah, Florida's gonna be a mess" be a cop-out way to an easy win -- this ought to do it.)
Anyway, now that that's out of the way -- let's get ready to rumble! :-)
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Leftkowitz, in his role as quizmixmaster, has promised me that by playing his game I will not jinx anything. I love a good horserace and this baby is going to go all the way to the wire. And while the supreme court would love to fill their docket and be the center of attention for the next 2 months, I’m not predicting anything close to a photo finish.
I predict that a lot of voters who usually are under-represented are going find their way to the polls this year. I’m also betting the trend that lends to undecideds not pulling the lever of the incumbent candidate come election time.
Should I win, I want the cash in the form of a gift certificate to the Capital City Brew Pub. For I will be in the mood to celebrate. The pumpkin ale is worth the drive and Lord knows I already spend way too much time looking a damn computer screen as is.
So here goes:
Kerry = 338 / Bush = 200
Kerry = 338
California, Massachusetts, The District, Maryland, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Virginia (yes, Virginia there is a santa clause), Vermont, Rhode Island, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Connecticut, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maine, New York
Bush = 200
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming
Hey and do I get a prize for being the very first entry?
Prediction:
Kerry 272; Bush 266
And...will not get tied up in post election counting scandals (God save the Republic!).
Close calls?
Kerry: HI, MI, MN, NH, NJ, OH (tight!), PA, WI (go Badgers!)
Bush: CO, FL, IA, WV.
Jason - looking forward to the prize ;-)