Race Tightening in NH

Category: Election 2004: Here We Go Again

Monday, January 26, 2004

Oh, man... I've learned my lesson about doubting the poll numbers. This time around, I'm listening. And they are making it sound like tomorrow's New Hampshire primary is gonna be a hell of a close-run thing.

Check it --

American Research Group Tracking Poll, 1/24 - 1/26 (with data from previous cycle, 1/23 - 1/25, in parens for reference):

• Kerry: 35% (from 38%)
• Dean: 25% (20%)
• Edwards: 16% (15%)
• Clark: 15% (13%)
• Lieberman: 5% (6%)
• Undecided: 5%

Zogby NH Tracking Poll, 1/23-25 (data from 1/22-24 in parens):

• Kerry : 31% (30%)
• Dean: 28% (23%)
• Clark: 13% (13%)
• Edwards: 12% (9%)
• Lieberman: 9% (9%)
• Undecided: 3% (13%) (undecideds leaning towards a candidate were allocated to that candidate in the latest figures)

SurveyUSA New Hampshire Primary Poll (previous data unavailable)

• Kerry: 33%
• Dean: 28%
• Edwards: 14%
• Clark: 12%
• Lieberman: 7%
• Undecided: 2%

So, if things break anything like the way these numbers are indicating, things should get very interesting indeed. Kerry will still be the "front-runner", but without a clear mandate or enough strength to bury his most dangerous immediate challengers (Dean and Edwards) outright. A strong second place puts Dean back in play and ends the "Dean is toast" meme. (His people have regained enough confidence to put the bat back up.) Edwards and Clark scrap it out for third place and the honorary "scrappy underdog" crown. And Lieberman... well, Joe rides his "Joementum" off into the sunset. (About frickin' time, too.)

Of course, as Iowa so dramatically proved, nothing's final until the votes are cast and counted, so anything could happen -- so cross your fingers for your guy and let's see what direction the New Hampshire Dems send this race off in next.